country 中国工业

As Ms Chang notes, many of the thousands of factories in Dongguan, a manufacturing hub in the southern province of Guangdong, had an Orwellian aura, with slogans on the walls such as: “To die poor is a sin”; “If you don’t work hard today, you’ll search hard for work tomorrow”; and “Through doing something, you will learn it”. Job advertisements were similarly brusque: “Sales specialist. Can eat bitterness and endure hardship. No only children.”

张彤禾指出，在东莞（广东省的制造业腹地）的众多工厂里，弥漫着一种乔治?奥威尔(George Orwell)小说中的气氛：很多墙上贴着“贫穷地死去是一种罪过”、“今天工作不努力，明天努力找工作”、“实践出真知”等标语。类似地，招聘广告也赤裸裸地写道：“招销售专员。能吃苦耐劳。独生子女勿扰。”

The tables have turned. Since blue-collar labour moved from surplus to shortage in 2010, bargaining power has shifted from bosses to migrants, obliging employers to learn some charm and lure workers with rising salaries and improved benefits. Throughout 2012, the proportion of blue-collar openings filled each month never exceeded 75 per cent, according to China Confidential data.

这种局面已发生逆转。从2010年开始，蓝领劳动力市场已由供给过剩转为供给短缺，新的形势迫使雇主学着取悦工人，并用加薪和改善福利吸引更多工人为自己工作。《中国投资参考》的数据显示，2012年，每月的蓝领岗位空缺填补率都没有超过75%。

The result of this fundamental labour market reversal has been to propel migrant workers’ incomes sharply higher, a trend that is unlikely to change for as long as blue-collar labour remains in shortage. Indeed, such incomes are rising faster than those of any other significant consumer cohort – climbing 12 per cent to Rmb2,995 a month in 2012, the China Confidential survey shows. This compares with the average annual growth rate in urban incomes of 9.3 per cent of the past decade.

劳动力市场的这种根本性逆转，已促使农民工的收入迅速增长。只要蓝领劳动力仍然短缺，这一趋势就不太可能改变。的确，《中国投资参考》的调查显示，农民工收入上涨速度超过了其他任何重要消费者群体——他们的月收入在2012年累计上涨12%，达到2995元。与之形成对照的是，过去10年里城市居民收入平均每年增长9.3%。

From Beijing’s perspective, the vitality of the migrant worker cohort could hardly be of greater importance to the twin aims of rebalancing the growth model and spurring urbanisation. In the first endeavour, there is no question that migrant worker spending is an increasingly potent driver away from an over-reliance on investment-led growth and towards more consumption. Consumer spending in the first quarter of this year accounted for 55 per cent of gross domestic product growth, raising expectations that 2013 may be the third consecutive year in which consumption contributes more than investment to GDP growth.

从北京方面的视角看，农民工群体的消费实力对实现增长模式再平衡和推进城镇化这两个目标至关重要。就第一个目标而言，毫无疑问，农民工支出在促使增长模式由过度投资依赖型转向消费拉动型方面，正发挥着越来越重要的作用。今年第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长的55%由消费者支出贡献，预计2013年消费对GDP增长的贡献将连续第三年超过投资。

For urbanisation, too – which Li Keqiang, the premier, has said is set to become the greatest source of domestic demand in the coming decade – rural migrants are seen as crucial. Mr Li has plans to reform the household registration (hukou) system – which classifies everyone as either rural or urban – turning migrants into urban citizens, which qualifies them for more generous welfare allocations. The planned surge in welfare awards, in turn, is expected to spur consumer spending.

农民工对于推进城镇化也很关键。中国总理李克强已表示，城镇化将成为中国未来10年最大内需来源。李克强计划推进户籍制度改革（目前这一制度将所有居民划分为城镇居民和农村居民两类），让农民工获得城镇居民身份，从而有资格在福利分配方面享受更好的待遇。而福利待遇的大幅提高，进而将促进消费支出。

While the exact methodologies for hukou reform are yet to be announced by Beijing, signs are that many migrants are keen to embrace a settled urban future. Of the 220m who live and work in cities but have no urban hukou, 131m are keen to become permanent urban residents, the survey shows. If this number – roughly equivalent to the population of Japan – do settle permanently in cities, it will not be their sweat so much as their spending power that shapes China’s destiny.

尽管中国政府仍未公布户籍制度改革的细则，但有迹象显示，许多农民工非常乐意在城市里定居下来。前述调查显示，在城市里生活和工作的2.2亿农民工中，有1.31亿人渴望成为城镇永久居民。如果这么多人（大约相当于日本的总人口）真的在城市里定居下来，那么中国的命运在更大程度上将受他们的购买力、而非劳动力影响。